Week 3 NFL TV Picks

Gents, it's all about the BANKROLL.

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That's right--whether you're playing with pesos or dollars, units or yen, the key to surviving the long NFL season is having the good sense to go easy on the garbage games and to pound only those games you really like. If you're just watching a game because there's nothing else on, you've never seen the teams play, and you don't even know the names of the starting QB's, that's when you should lay (if you must lay at all) just enough to make it interesting.

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That being said, after looking over this week's TV schedule (and because we are making picks on ALL of the televised games) it's very tempting to throw out five one-unit picks and call it a day. But for the sake of consistency (and to keep us honest), we're going to impose a rule: each week, we will lay a minimum of fourteen units (using the number we randomly established last week), assuming a five-game TV schedule. If there are more or fewer games televised, the minimum will be raised or lowered by 3 units per game. (11 points minimum on a four-game schedule, 17 on a six-game schedule...you get the idea). Of course, the maximum number of units will be the number of games multiplied by 4.

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To make things interesting, we're also going to start a contest. As you all know, first prize is a Cadillac Eldorado. Anybody want to see second prize? Second prize is a set of steak knives. Third prize is you're fired. (Legal disclaimer: NOT real prizes.)

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The actual contest? Post your picks (using the rules laid out above) in the comments. (YES, mjp--they must be posted BEFORE kickoff of the first game.) Each week, all entrants who beat my total units for the week will be entered in a drawing. One winning entry will be pulled out of a hat by one of the following: 1. myself; 2. a four-year-old; or 3. one of the homeless guys who hang out at the exit ramp at I-55 and Route 30 in Joliet. The winner will receive a $6 (SIX DOLLARS AMERICAN) gift certificate to KFC (formerly "Kentucky Fried Chicken"), which may be used to purchase a Double Down or any of KFC's many other fine culinary offerings. The contest will continue through the end of the regular season, or until any contestant drops dead of a heart attack--whichever occurs first. (For contest purposes, on games where our pick is a total, we will also list point spreads--and vice versa.)

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I sincerely and deeply wish you all the best of luck. Now to the picks:

(Home teams listed in CAPS.)

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1. Lions at VIKINGS. This game is a turdburger. Its very existence reminds us why one-unit picks were invented. But we flipped a coin, and it says "Lions". So, to reverse-engineer the pick, let's guess that Favre starts to feel a spry 53 years old, gets greedy, and throws a couple of picks. And maybe, just maybe, Shaun Hill doesn't drop the ball handing it to Jahvid Best and accidentally gets it to Calvin Johnson a few times. The Vikes pull it out, but not by this many.

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The pick: Lions +11.5 (1 unit) (Total is 43)

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2. Titans at GIANTS: Tennessee can't throw, and the Giants might not be able to throw against Tennessee. Both teams keep it on the ground and keep the score low.
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The pick: UNDER 43.5 (3 units) (Spread is New York -3)

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3. Colts at BRONCOS: If Matt Hasselbeck could put up 233 yards in the air against Denver, how many can Peyton Manning put up?
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The pick: Colts -6 (3 units) (Total is 47.5)

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4. Jets at DOLPHINS: The putrescent Jets offense gets smacked around by the Dolphins D. The Dolphins grind it out on the ground.
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The pick: Dolphins -2.5 (3 units) (Total is 35.5)

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5. Packers at BEARS: Before we make the pick, let's look at some numbers:

• So far this year, the Pack has averaged 30.5 "points for" (PF) and 13.5 "points against" (PA); the Bears have averaged 23.0 PF and 17.0 PA. These raw numbers would suggest an approximate final score in this game of Green Bay 24, Chicago 18 (with an over/under of 42). The actual spread is Green Bay -3. The actual total is 46.
• Through two games, the Pack offense has averaged 111.5 yards on the ground and 211.0 in the air. The Bears defense has given up an average of only 28.0 on the ground, but a whopping 261.0 passing. The Bears have run for only 69.5 yards a game, but thrown for 316.0 per. The Pack have given up 137.0 rushing, 116.5 passing.

What do these numbers tell us? NOTHING, really--that's why they call it "gambling." But to try to make our guess an educated one, let's assume that the numbers suggest the following:

• Even though the statement has as much truth as your average 9/11 conspiracy theory, the great sage Lovie Smith has told us for years that "the Chicago Bears get off the bus running." Based on the numbers above, there's no reason to doubt that the Bears will be tempted to work out their anemic rushing skills against the Pack's woeful run defense. On the flip side, the Pack's stingy pass D will probably scare the Bears away from giving Jay Cutler too many IA's (interception attempts). (Then again, the Pack D hasn't exactly been tested, having garnered those stats, in order, against Michael Vick, then the Bills).
• As much as Lovie will be looking to run, Aaron Rodgers must be positively SALIVATING at the prospect of throwing against the Bears. But again, the Pack has posted their numbers against the Eagles and Bills, while the Bears have faced one really good quarterback in Tony Romo and a half-game of another good quarterback, Matt Stafford.

Based on all of the above, we can see why the line is where it is, rather than being at the suggested number of Pack -9. But this early in the season, with two teams that look fairly evenly matched, we're going to stay away from a 3-point spread--a field goal could decide this one either way. So we're going to predict that the Bears run with some success, the Pack passes with some success (though less than they've had), and a tight game finishes closer to the suggested total of 42 than the actual total of 46. One more piece of info: combined, these two teams have gone under the total 3 out of 4 times.
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The pick: UNDER 46 (4 units) (Spread is Green Bay -3)
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As always, we'll track our record by picks AND units. Boa sorte!