Week 8 NFL TV Picks (AND Week 7 Results and ATS Numbers)

This is IT. "This is WHAT?" you ask... We’ll get to that in a second. First, let’s look at some results.

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First, our readers. There was no drawing, as reader Brandon somehow pulled off an incredible 12-0 weekend and therefore picks up the gift card automatically. (Philip J. went 6-5, also beating our record, which was no great feat...) We, on the other hand, failed to impress, going 2-9 in units. Our only correct pick was the Monday Night over.

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Week 6 Record:
1 win, 3 losses, zero push
2 units won, 9 units lost, 0 units pushed= -7 units

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Year-to-Date:
14 wins, 14 losses, 1 push
39 units won, 43 units lost= -4 units
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In the NFL overall, the trend toward underdogs continued, as favorites posted a paltry 5-9 record ATS (for a year-to date record of 40-61-3 ATS). Overs dominated, with 10 games going over and only 4 under (57-46-1 YTD). The latter result was especially painful for us, as we picked overs in TWO of those few that went under.

Now, back to the first paragraph. When we say "This is it", we mean "this is the weekend where the world returns to normal." Though underdogs have outperformed favorites so far this year by a margin of better than 2 to 1, that trend simply will not continue through the year. By the end of each season, the balance WILL end up closer to even. This year, for that to happen, we're going to have some weeks where the favorites have their vengeance, big-time. We say this week is primed to be one of those...so here come da favorites!

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The picks:
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1. Packers at Jets: The pack may have handled a broken-down Brett Favre easily, but the AFC-leading Jets are another matter entirely. The Jets are 5-1 both straight-up AND ATS, with their only loss coming in Week 1 against a tough Ravens team, before the Jets had their offense running. They stomp the Pack.

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The pick: Jets -6 (4 units) (Total is 42.5)
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2. Jaguars at Cowboys: Hmmm..."Too good to be true?" Romo out, Kitna in, and the 1-5 Cowboys are GIVING almost a touchdown to the 3-4 Jags? Don't get us wrong--the Jags DO suck...just nowhere near as much as the Cowboys suck. We say the Jags run it down their throats all day, and maybe the Cowboys keep an ugly game close, but they ain't winnin' by a touchdown... This will be the only game that makes us go against this week's "favorites" bias.

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The pick: Jaguars +6.5 (4 units) (Total is 43.5)
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3. Vikings at Patriots: OMG IS BRETT FAVRE REALLY GONNA START WITH A BROKEN ANKLE OMG HE IS SO FREAKING AWESOME LOL JEOMK!!! WILL he...or WON'T he? A more important question: who gives a shit? We mulled the idea of not making a pick on this game, since it is technically off the board due to his Favreness' uncertain status. But then we realized that it doesn't matter whether he starts or not: there is NO way the AFC-battle-hardened Pats drop this game. They are simply in a better class than the Vikes. And we'll make a prediction: if Favre DOES start, that ankle will start to hurt REALLY badly right around his third interception--at which time he'll limp off, the injured "warrior"...

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The pick: Patriots -5 (4 units) (Total is 44)
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4. Steelers at Saints: See the Jets' notes above. Pittsburgh fell (by 3 points) to only the Ravens, while the Saints have gone down straight-up against Atlanta, Arizona and Cleveland (!?!). If you're an NFC fan (as we are), this is gonna be a looong, humiliating weekend...(Note that while this is technically an underdog pick, we'd be willing to bet that this line flips to -1 Steelmen by kickoff.)

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The pick: Steelers +1 (4 units) (Total is 44)
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5. Texans at Colts: The toughest call of all the televised games this weekend. Houston DID take down Indy, BUT Indy has played better than Houston since. Then again, Houston has had a tougher schedule. We just don't like the 5.5 points here--there's too much of a possibility of a close game, capped by a Peyton Manning drive for the winning FG. So let's look at the total: Houston is averaging 25.5 "Points For" and 27.8 "Points Against"; Indy is at 27.2 PF and 20.8 PA. Those numbers suggest an approximate final score of about 28-23, Colts. That's only slightly over the total -- but throw in a close game and the prime time slot, and we think it goes over.

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The pick: OVER 50 (4 units) (Spread is Colts -5.5)
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Please remember to enter the weekly contest by posting your picks in the comments. (For you new readers out there, contest details can be found here.)

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As always, we'll track our record by picks AND units. Happy Halloween, and hao yun!

Week 7 NFL TV Picks (AND Week 6 Results and ATS Numbers)

Welcome back, gents. Before we get down to business, we have one quick housekeeping matter. Due to time constraints (read “laziness”), we were not able to post Week 6 results earlier this week -- so this post will be a combination of last week’s results and this week’s picks. In fact, we’re just gonna go ahead and do it this way every week from now on. Anyway...

All we can say about last week is, “Coulda been worse.” We made some pretty dumb mistakes, but we also learned a couple of things (and of course, we have at least one excuse for one of our losers.) Our tally last week was a survivable 6-8-2 unit-wise. We got it right on the Jets/Broncos over (4 units) and the Cowboys/Vikings over (2 units). We were wrong on (of course) the Bears (4 units) and the Titans/Jaguars over (4 units). We pushed on the Colts (2 units)--though to be honest, we must place an asterisk next to that one: the line when we picked (on Saturday) was Colts -3; by the time the game kicked off, it had moved to to 3.5...no doubt victimizing pickers everywhere with the evil last-minute hook.

So here’s one thing we learned -- and it’s an EXTREMELY simple lesson: NEVER EVER EVER EVER go heavy on the Bears, no matter WHO they are playing. They are simply too inconsistent to rely on them with any degree of confidence. This rule may be subject to change later in the season, but for right now, we’ll be making any Bears picks with an extreme note of caution.

As for our "excuse"? As you know, not only did we pick the Titans/Jags over, but we said we LOVED it. “Love” is not a word you’ll see often in our picks. And while we sometimes feel like boneheads after a pick goes south, we feel no regrets about this one. We can’t say this for certain, but we’re fairly sure that more points would have been scored in that one if BOTH starting QB's hadn't been knocked out in the first half. So anyway, that's our excuse--but maybe it's just karmic payback for the lucky push on Indy.

And we did learn a couple of other things last week. Though we only make picks on televised games, we do keep an eye open for interesting results/stats/trends from other games (they can always be helpful later, when those teams ARE televised). And though we know none of our readers gamble, some of you may be involved in free confidence pools or charitable wagering contests or the like...so these are for you, too. Three things jumped out at us from last week. First, after their 8-point loss at the Giants, the Lions are an incredible 5-1 (!!!) ATS. Though they can barely win a game to save their lives, they DO keep 'em close enough to f*** up your world if you go against them. The next interesting item from last weekend was this: by kickoff time, the 49ers were an incredible SEVEN AND A HALF point favorite against the Raiders. Yes, the Raiders are pretty terrible, and yes, the game was being played in San Fran, but how in the world can an 0-5 team be favored by more than a touchdown against ANYBODY? And of course, the Niners ended up covering. We know this for certain: a LOT of pickers saw that line and jumped all over Oakland -- and took it in the shorts. (If that game were televised, WE probably would have, too.) This is one that falls under the "too good to be true" rule that we have discussed in previous postings.

The last item of interest from last week took place off the field. And before I throw this out there, I must say that a reader in Simmons' mailbag mentioned this idea -- but I SWEAR I thought of it earlier in the week. With the league's new crackdown on hard hits, how can we, picking the games, benefit? I say, until we see further evidence, that this development favors overs (at least where it's a close call). How many touchdowns will be scored because a DB hesitates for a split second and fails to knock out a receiver? Maybe none, but until we know for sure, if you're playing totals, that HAS to be taken into consideration.

As for our readers last week, both dbato (7-7) and Philip J (8-3-3) beat our score. As we pick the winner out of a 1985 vintage Bears stocking cap, drum roll, please...the winner is: Philip J. (As a side note, Philip was also on the receiving end of a STUNNING breach of etiquette in the comments by reader Jim, who will indoubtedly be punished by the "Karmic Gods of Picking" this week for his jackassery). Anyway, congrats, Phil -- and check your mailbox every day this week for your $6 KFC certificate.

Week 6 Record:
2 wins, 2 losses, one push
6 units won, 8 units lost, 2 units pushed= -2 units

Year-to-Date:
13 wins, 11 losses, 1 push
37 units won, 34 units lost= +3 units

In the NFL overall, don't call it a comeback, but the favorites regained momentum. They were 7-6-1 ATS, for a year-to date record of 35-52-3 ATS. Overs were, by a slight margin, the better pick this week, with 8 games going over and 6 under (47-42-1 YTD).

Now on to this week... Before we pick, we'd just like to say that this week offers what may be the crappiest slate of televised games YET. But on the bright side, there's only 4 of them. So we got THAT goin' for us, which is nice...

1. Redskins at Bears: Will Jay Cutler actually have time to look at his receivers before getting sacked this week? Will Donovan McNabb light it up in his return to Chicago? Who knows? We sure don't... The Bears may be 4-2, but we're hard-pressed to remember a worse 4-2 team. Put simply, the outcome of this game is a coin flip-- and the oddsmakers agree: giving 3 points for home-field advantage, they are essentially saying these teams are even. Can we find any help on the total by looking at statistics? Chicago is averaging 18.7 “Points For” and 16.2 “Points Against”; Washington is at 18.8 PF and 19.8 PA. Those numbers suggest an approximate final score of about 19-18, Bears. With a total of 40, that doesn't help us much. So we're going to say the 'Skins give up quite a few passing yards (their "D" gives up an average of 298.2 in the air), the Bears give up a few less (the Skins' "O" averages 244.2 in the air), and maybe our wild card Devin Hester breaks one -- all in all, we think we're gonna see some scoring. But we're not willing to go heavy on that pick...

The pick: OVER 40 (2 units) (Spread is Bears -3)

2. Patriots at Chargers: This one definitely feels like a "too good to be true" line. The Pats are 4-1, the Chargers are 2-4, and the books have this one at Chargers -3. Why? Maybe because the Chargers are 2-0 at home -- or maybe because the oddsmakers KNOW MORE THAN WE DO. While a quick glance at this game would lead us to say "Pats all day" (and most of the picking "experts" seem to agree), we're gonna proceed with caution. So how about this? The Patriots are 4-1 over/under, the Chargers are 4-2. New England is averaging 30.8 “Points For” and 23.2 “Points Against”; San Diego is at 26.2 PF and 21.0 PA. Those numbers suggest an approximate final score of about 26-25, Pats -- which would be over our total of 47.5. Add to that these facts: the Chargers average 38.5 PF at home; the Pats put up 41 in their last road game (at Miami); and the aforementioned desire of Roger Goodell to turn the NFL into a two-hand-touch league. With that said, the over feels really good here.

The pick: OVER 47.5 (4 units) (Spread is Chargers -2.5)

3. Vikings at Packers: AGAIN with the Vikings? We've seen more of Brett Favre this year than the people on his texting friends list have... Anyway, let's look at the total first. Minnesota is averaging 17.4 “Points For” and 17.6 “Points Against”; Green Bay is at 23.2 PF and 18.7 PA. Those numbers suggest an approximate final score of about 20-18, Packers -- which would be WAY under our total of 44. However, these teams' last four meetings have gone over -- with an average of 53.8 total points per game. What does that tell us? As usual, nothing--except we're gonna stay away from the total here. We say that Green Bay's one-dimensional offense has a hard time against the Vikings' good D, and Adrian Peterson has success against the Pack's D, and the Vikes cover.

The pick: Vikings +2.5 (3 units) (Total is 44)

4. Giants at Cowboys: To save ourselves some typing, we'll ask you to re-read the Pats-Chargers comments above. The Giants are 4-2, the Cowboys are 1-4...and Dallas is GIVING 3 points. We know what to do here. The last two games between these teams went over, the Cowboys' last two games this year went over, and the Giants went over last week. For those reasons, plus the Goodell Theory, our best guess here is over.

The pick: OVER 44.5 (2 units) (Spread is Cowboys -3)

Please remember to enter the weekly contest by posting your picks in the comments. Remember also that on a 4-game schedule, the minimum number of units is 11. (For you new readers out there, contest details can be found here.)

As always, we'll track our record by picks AND units. Noroc!

Week 6 NFL TV Picks

Sorry, guys: we’re short on time this week, so no foreplay--just straight to the picks:
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1. Seahawks at Bears: Oh, how we HATE to pick these Bears as favorites. But while the Bears are maddeningly inconsistent, the Seahawks are VERY consistent--consistently TERRIBLE on the road. While Seattle did knock off the underachieving ‘Niners and Chargers in Seattle, they also lost to the Broncos and the putrid Rams on the road--each game by a margin of 17 points. There’s no reason to think that the trend will change here--especially with Chicago’s Football Messiah Himself, Jay Cutler, back under center. We say the Bears romp.
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The pick: Bears -6.5 (4 units) (Total is 37.5)
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2. Jets at Broncos: Last week, we devoted considerable space to a discussion of over/unders in the Jets’ recent games--specifically, that they had been set too low (in the thirties). While we usually like to jump off a bandwagon BEFORE it crashes, we see no reason to buck the trend here. The Jets’ last four have gone over the total by an AVERAGE of almost 11.9 points; the Broncs’ last two have gone over by an average of 5.5. With both teams likely to both put up AND give up gobs of yards, we say the total here is too low. (And by the way, if the line drops to Jets -3, we wouldn’t mind them in a parlay, either...)
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The pick: OVER 43 (4 units) (Spread is Jets -3.5)
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3. Cowboys at Vikings: This one feels tricky. Dallas is averaging 20.3 “Points For” and 21.8 “Points Against”; Minny is at 15.8 PF and 16.8 PA. Those numbers suggest an approximate final score of about 19-19. But Minnesota has put up 20 and 24 in its last two games (against the Jets and Lions, respectively), while Dallas has put up 27, 27 and 20 in its last 3 (against the Titans, Texans and Bears.) And while neither defense gives up (relatively speaking) a TON of yards -- an average of 304.8 for Dallas and 289.3 for Minnesota -- this game FEELS like a shootout. And since we actually used the word “FEELS” in making this pick, we’re keeping the units low here....
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The pick: OVER 44.5 (2 units) (Spread is Vikings -1.5)
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4. Colts at Redskins: Let’s reminisce for a moment about the Colts of days gone by... Nothing felt better than needing a cover going into a night game and knowing that Peyton was going to come through for you. Well, those days are gone...but not this week. It might not be flashy, but the Colts handle the ‘Skins by more than 3, no problem.
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The pick: Colts -3 (2 units) (Total is 44)
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5. Titans at Jaguars: This season, the Titans are averaging 26.4 PF and and 19.0 PA; the Jags, 21.4 and 27.4. Those numbers suggest a final score of approximately 27-20, Titans -- which would put us just over the current total of 45. But let’s add these numbers to the mix: in their last two games, the Titans’ totals have been 46 and 61 (for an average of of 53.5) and the Jags’ totals have been 59 and 62 (for an average of 60.5). Tennessee PUT up 34 against Dallas; Jacksonville GAVE up 26 to BUFFALO). We may like the Titans in this one, but Blue Horseshoe LOVES the over.
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The pick: OVER 45 (4 units) (Spread is Titans -3)
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Please remember to enter the weekly contest by posting your picks in the comments. (For you new readers out there, contest details can be found here.)
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As always, we'll track our record by picks AND units. Kila la kheri!

Week 5 NFL Results and ATS Numbers

We goin’ to Sizz-ler, we goin’ to Sizz-ler!

While last week’s tally won’t buy dinner for you and your lady at Ruth’s Chris, it certainly would cover a meal for two (WITH full salad bar privileges) at the aforementioned House of Sizzle...

Week 5 saw us reverse our atrocious week 4 results, picking four winners against one loser. We got it right on the Bears (1 unit), the Titans/Cowboys over (3 units), the Eagles (2 units) and the Vikings/Jets over (4 units). Our only misstep was, unfortunately, a 4-unit pick--the Colts/Chiefs over (though if all of the Colts FG's were TD’s, we would’ve been RIGHT there...)

As for our readers, there was no contest winner this week. But two readers deserve special mention: mjp, who tied our record, and therefore receives the “Close But No Cigar Trophy”, along with a (strictly platonic) pat on the ass; and dbato, who followed up last week’s win with an incredible oh-fer--that’s right, ZERO FOR SIXTEEN. In fact, just to keep him from becoming so discouraged that he quits handicapping altogether, we’re going to drop the $6 KFC gift certificate in the mail to him first thing tomorrow. Chin up, buddy...

Week 5 Record:
4 wins, 1 loss
10 units won, 4 units lost= +6 units

Year-to-Date:
11 wins, 9 losses
31 units won, 26 units lost= +5 units

This is starting to sound like a broken record, but week 5 was--for the fourth week in a row--a Dog Day Weekend. Favorites bit the dust again, covering only 5 of 14 games, for a year-to date record of 28-46-2 ATS. (And since so many of you love the "touchdown-or-more home dogs" rule, we have to point out that week 5 featured TWO seven-point home dogs--the Cards and Raiders-- and both won outright!) Totals were actually more unbalanced than they have been, with 9 games going over and 5 under (39-36-1 YTD). Since these things tend to run in streaks, it may be worth keeping an eye on the totals for opportunities over the next few weeks. And, of course, until favorites start proving they can cover with regularity, we'll be giving the benefit of the doubt to the dogs in any tossup games.

See you Saturday, when we'll decide whether the Bears should be a touchdown favorite over anybody...

Week 5 NFL TV Picks

Welcome back to Week 4...we’re calling it that because last week NEVER. HAPPENED.

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Each week, we’ve tried to impart some wisdom on one area or another of picking games. This week, we’re going to take a step backward and discuss the very first rule of handicapping. Here it is, in six words: “Trying to pick winners is STUPID.” “Why”, you ask? Lemme tell ya...
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“Parity” is not just a cliche or another word for Shannon Sharpe to mispronounce on Sunday morning--in the NFL, it is reality. Take, for example, our Monsters of the Midway (Please! Ba-dum-bum...) But seriously--two weeks ago, the Bears looked like a Super Bowl contender as they knocked off the previously unbeaten Packers. One week later, Jay Cutler played the role of Andy Dufresne in a one-hour remake of “The Shawshank Redemption”, co-starring the Giants’ D-line as The Sisters. The Jets’ offense looked like a (very untalented) high school team in Week One, but has averaged 32.3 points in its last 3 games. The moral of this story? Gambling is for morons. As they say in the investment business, “Past Performance is No Guarantee of Future Results”. No matter how many stats you pore over, no matter how many games you watch, you simply never know how one team is going to play against another. And now that we have our excuses out of the way, here come da picks!
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1. Chiefs at Colts: Can the Chiefs maintain their status as the last undefeated team in the NFL? We don’t know...and we don’t care. This game has “total play” written all over it. KC has averaged 22.7 “points for” and 12.7 “points against”; Indy has averaged 29.3 PF and 23.0 PA. Those numbers suggest an approximate score here of about 23-21, Indy. That would be less than the total (as of this writing) of 45.5. But the Chiefs’ low PA has more to do with the craptastic offenses of their opponents than it has to do with their defensive skill. Plus, they can score a few points themselves--and are a threat to break off a kick return TD at any time. And we KNOW Peyton is going to get HIS...
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The pick: OVER 45.5 (4 units) (Spread is Colts -7)
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2. Bears at Panthers: This week’s “Game We Wish We Didn’t Have to Pick”... The line in this one opened with the Bears giving 3 points, until Chicago management wisely decided that Jay Cutler might DIE if he got hit again and pulled him. It now sits at Panthers minus 1.5. So the question is, “Is Jay Cutler worth 4 and a half points himself?” We don’t think so. Our first thought on this game was actually the UNDER all the way--between Carolina’s 11.5 PF average and the prospect of Todd Collins bumbling his way through his first start since 1962, a low score seemed certain. But the total is an astounding 33.5! We can’t remember EVER seeing one that low--and we can’t in good conscience pick it, when Devin Hester’s returns or Collins’ interceptions could easily push it over. We say the Bears keep it simple, run the ball, and eke this one out--but we aren’t putting many units on it...
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The pick: Bears +1.5 (1 unit) (Total is 33.5)
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3. Titans at Cowboys: 2-2 versus 1-2? Who knows? But we say this: Both teams can score. And while Dallas is only giving up 17.7 points per game, they DID give up 27 to THE BEARS, for crying out loud. Romo’s arm probably gives the ‘Boys a cover here, but we feel PRETTY good about calling this one a high scorer.
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The pick: OVER 42 (3 units) (Spread is Cowboys -7)
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4. Eagles at 49ers: Jesus H. Christ! Have there ever been more crappy games on TV in a single week? Kevin Kolb against the 0-4 ‘Niners? Let me mark my calendar! This game is going to be as artfully played as John Candy mud wrestling in “Stripes”. (In fact, why don’t you go here and watch that instead of watching this game?) In the end, we think the wildly terrible 'Niners ride Frank Gore to a win--but not a cover. The hook gets ‘em..
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The pick: Eagles +3.5 (2 units) (Total is 38)
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5. Vikings at Jets: Finally, an interesting game--even if it’s not for what’s ON the field. The addition of Mr. Moss has only lowered this line from Jets -5 to -4...and that seems about right. The Jets have been too strong--and the Vikings too terrible--for one man to change the favorite. But even if he doesn’t catch a single pass, Moss stretches out the field for Adrian Peterson. And here’s our stat of the week: the Jets' last 3 games have gone over the total--WAY over. Here are their last three (beginning with 9/19) over/unders: 39.5, 35.5, 36.5. And here are the actual totals from those games: 42, 54, 52. They’re giving us another one in the thirties this week--and we’re taking it.
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The pick: OVER 39 (4 units) (Spread is Jets -4)
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As always, we'll track our record by picks AND units. Veel geluk!

Week 4 NFL Results and ATS Numbers

Ouch.

It's weeks like last week that: 1. make us wonder why we bother to pick games, and: 2. have the bookmakers lining up at Lexus dealerships.

We tallied a pathetic FOUR losses and ONE win, picking wrong on the Lions/Packers (1 unit), the Eagles (4 units), the Colts (2 units), and (most crushingly) the Bears (4 units), with our only win coming on the Pats (4 units). As the results rolled in, we felt much like Jay Cutler, taking vicious blow after vicious blow to the cranium... (And not to make excuses, but it certainly didn't help our cause that TWO of our quarterbacks were knocked out this week.)

Being as small and petty as we are, we take solace in the fact that our readers didn't fare much better. However, we DO have a contest winner this week: dbato. But since he violated the rules by making a FIVE-unit pick on the Jags (one unit over the max--perhaps he had mjp send in his picks) he will receive only a $3 certificate to KFC (along with warm congratulations, of course).

Week 4 Record:
1 win, 4 losses
4 units won, 11 units lost= -7 units

Year-to-Date:
7 wins, 8 losses
21 units won, 22 units lost= -1 unit

Yet again, the 'dogs ruled the day last weekend, with favorites posting a pathetic 5-9 record ATS (23-37-2 YTD). Totals followed form and clocked in at 8 over, 6 under (30-31-1 YTD). Is it time to give up picking and just put it all against the favorites? We don't think so--as we all know, over the course of the season the records will tend to revert to the mean (or some other mathematical term we missed in college while sleeping through class.)

We'll see you Saturday, by which time we'll hopefully know whether Cutler will rise from his hospital bed to wreak vengeance on the Panthers...

Why the name?

Many of you have asked why this blog is called "Polite Fictions". It's an homage to our favorite writer, the brilliant Mark Steyn. You can read the full quote (and buy the life-changing book containing it) here.

Week 4 NFL TV Picks

Welcome back, gents (and ladies, and transgendered persons--all are welcome here).

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Last week, we discussed the importance of bankroll management. This week, we'll touch on a topic that we will revisit throughout the season: rules (as in "rules for picking games", also known as "betting rules", though we don't use the word "betting" here, as the information on this blog is for news material only.) (Another note: if any of the following appears to be plagiarized from Bill Simmons, I apologize--it is certainly unintentional.) Anyone who picks games, from novice to degenerate, follows at least one rule. Many of our readers are longtime followers of the rule that says, "Pick all home dogs of 7 points or more." Other people avoid picking either for OR against their favorite team, because emotion can cloud judgment. Another rule, and one that we ALWAYS follow here, says this: "If a line looks too good to be true, stay the HELL away from that game." A textbook example of that rule took place last weekend.

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As many of you know, unlike our house, this blog is run as a democracy (or at least a dictatorship MASQUERADING as a democracy). Therefore, throughout each week, we solicit input from a variety of people--friends, family, strangers, gas station cashiers, etc. Leading up to last weekend, one view was repeated more than any other: the Redskins were an absolute GIMME at -3. Even when heavy action on the 'Skins forced the bookmakers to go to -5, the drumbeat continued: there was NO WAY the hapless Rams were going to lose by anything less than double digits.

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Thankfully, that game was not televised and we didn't have to pick it, because the impossible happened--the Rams thrashed the ‘Skins. But if you follow our rule, that outcome was not a shock, it was EXPECTED. (For the sake of honesty, we must admit that if we HAD been forced to pick that game, we probably would have gone down the crapper with the ‘Skins like everyone else--but because of the rule, it definitely would have been a 1-unit pick.) So why is this a rule? Glad you asked. THIS is why: Vegas didn’t build all those fancy hotels by “not knowing stuff”. When the bookmakers set a line that seems to contradict common sense, it is for one reason only: THEY know things the rest of us DON’T. When they set a line, they do it to make money, not because they suddenly feel like giving charity to us numbskulls sitting on our couches, dripping chili down the fronts of our replica jerseys. Which is why, when you see one of these lines, you shouldn’t ask “Why?” or start shopping for that new boat you’re gonna buy with your winnings. You should take a deep breath, put the paper down and JUST WALK AWAY.-Now that we have that out of the way, let’s go to the picks...
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1. Lions at Packers: Last week, we called the Lions/Vikings contest a “turdburger”. This game is not a full-sized turdburger; it’s more of a Jimmy Dean breakfast turdwich--but it sucks nonetheless. The Lions, despite being a crappy team that has played for the most part with their backup quarterback, are somehow 2-1 ATS. At first glance, it would appear that Green Bay should be favored by about 58 points over 0-3 Detroit. (That’s almost not a joke: scoresandodds.com calculates a “power line” for each game, giving an estimate of what the line SHOULD be, based on recent performance. The power line here? Green Bay -26.) However, in the age of parity, and “Any Given Sunday”, and all the rest of that crap, we simply HATE to go anywhere near a game with a two-touchdown spread. But there are rules here, so go near it we must. For the sake of bankroll preservation, this will be a one-unit pick. (In fact, we may establish another rule here: never go more than one unit on Detroit games...we’ll see.) But here are some numbers that may be useful: Detroit has averaged 18.7 “points for” and 26.0 “points against”; Green Bay has averaged 26.0 PF and 15.7 PA. Those numbers suggest an approximate score here of 26-17, Green Bay. That would be less than the total (as of this writing) of 45.5. Also, of the combined 6 games these two have played, 5 have gone under the total. And if we take the under, there is the added benefit of the Lions’ incompetence being HELPFUL.
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The pick: UNDER 45.5 (1 unit) (Spread is Green Bay -14)
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2. Redskins at Eagles: The popular sentiment here seems to be that McNabb’s return and last week’s embarrassment will propel the ’Skins to a decisive...well, cover, at least. But the numbers don’t lie: Washington’s D is giving up an Arena League-like 423.7 (!) yards per game, including 98.0 per game on the ground (133 by the Rams last week). Vick is gonna run as wild as a pit bull escaping from a dungeon.
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The pick: Eagles -5.5 (4 units) (Total is 43)
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3. Colts at Jaguars: This pick is brought to you by Mad Libs: Last week, we said “If Matt Hasselbeck could put up 233 yards in the air against Denver, how many can Peyton Manning put up?” This week, we change the name to Michael Vick, the number to 267 and the team to Jacksonville, but the song remains the same. (And yes, we know that this pick will make many of you cringe over the violation of the “7-Point Home Dogs Rule”--as a tribute to you, we will make this just a 2-unit game.)
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The pick: Colts -7 (2 units) (Total is 46)
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4. Bears at Giants: This game may bring two of the rules discussed above into play: the “Stay Away from Your Favorite Team” rule and the “Too Good to Be True” rule. But because we are picking ALL games televised in Chicago, and since EVERY Bears game is televised in Chicago, we, as Bears fans, will be breaking that rule every week. So forget that one. But let’s look at the second rule: is this line, favoring by more than a field goal a 1-2 team that appears to be on the decline, against a 3-0 juggernaut, too good to be true?
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If we can easily point to reasons why the line is where it is, then it is NOT too good to be true--or something like that (Confused? Us too.) What ARE the reasons? They seem to be: the Giants have faced a tougher schedule; the Giants can run the ball better than any of the Bears’ opponents thus far; the Giants are at home; and, the Bears gotta lose SOMETIME. Our opinion? The last is true and the first three MAY be true, but are irrelevant. The Packers were no creampuff opponent, the Bears have put on a STRANGLING rush defense (39.7(!) yards per game), AND the Bears showed no ill effects of travel in their win at Dallas. Also, New York’s offensive line, to use a scientific term, SUCKS. Julius Peppers and company will be (in the immortal words of the wise Rev. Jeremiah Wright) “RIDINNN DURRTY” all day on Eli.
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Or maybe we’re just picking our favorite team--whatever.
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The pick: Bears +3.5 (4 units) (Total is 44)
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5. Patriots at Dolphins: Too much “typey-typey” this week, so let’s make this short. After last week, we have a hard time trusting the Dolphins. Plus, Tom Brady’s new hairstyle is SO. FREAKING. HOT.
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The pick: Patriots -1 (4 units) (Total is 46.5)
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As always, we'll track our record by picks AND units. Powodzenia!