Sorry, guys: we’re short on time this week, so no foreplay--just straight to the picks:
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1. Seahawks at Bears: Oh, how we HATE to pick these Bears as favorites. But while the Bears are maddeningly inconsistent, the Seahawks are VERY consistent--consistently TERRIBLE on the road. While Seattle did knock off the underachieving ‘Niners and Chargers in Seattle, they also lost to the Broncos and the putrid Rams on the road--each game by a margin of 17 points. There’s no reason to think that the trend will change here--especially with Chicago’s Football Messiah Himself, Jay Cutler, back under center. We say the Bears romp.
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The pick: Bears -6.5 (4 units) (Total is 37.5)
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2. Jets at Broncos: Last week, we devoted considerable space to a discussion of over/unders in the Jets’ recent games--specifically, that they had been set too low (in the thirties). While we usually like to jump off a bandwagon BEFORE it crashes, we see no reason to buck the trend here. The Jets’ last four have gone over the total by an AVERAGE of almost 11.9 points; the Broncs’ last two have gone over by an average of 5.5. With both teams likely to both put up AND give up gobs of yards, we say the total here is too low. (And by the way, if the line drops to Jets -3, we wouldn’t mind them in a parlay, either...)
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The pick: OVER 43 (4 units) (Spread is Jets -3.5)
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3. Cowboys at Vikings: This one feels tricky. Dallas is averaging 20.3 “Points For” and 21.8 “Points Against”; Minny is at 15.8 PF and 16.8 PA. Those numbers suggest an approximate final score of about 19-19. But Minnesota has put up 20 and 24 in its last two games (against the Jets and Lions, respectively), while Dallas has put up 27, 27 and 20 in its last 3 (against the Titans, Texans and Bears.) And while neither defense gives up (relatively speaking) a TON of yards -- an average of 304.8 for Dallas and 289.3 for Minnesota -- this game FEELS like a shootout. And since we actually used the word “FEELS” in making this pick, we’re keeping the units low here....
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The pick: OVER 44.5 (2 units) (Spread is Vikings -1.5)
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4. Colts at Redskins: Let’s reminisce for a moment about the Colts of days gone by... Nothing felt better than needing a cover going into a night game and knowing that Peyton was going to come through for you. Well, those days are gone...but not this week. It might not be flashy, but the Colts handle the ‘Skins by more than 3, no problem.
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The pick: Colts -3 (2 units) (Total is 44)
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5. Titans at Jaguars: This season, the Titans are averaging 26.4 PF and and 19.0 PA; the Jags, 21.4 and 27.4. Those numbers suggest a final score of approximately 27-20, Titans -- which would put us just over the current total of 45. But let’s add these numbers to the mix: in their last two games, the Titans’ totals have been 46 and 61 (for an average of of 53.5) and the Jags’ totals have been 59 and 62 (for an average of 60.5). Tennessee PUT up 34 against Dallas; Jacksonville GAVE up 26 to BUFFALO). We may like the Titans in this one, but Blue Horseshoe LOVES the over.
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The pick: OVER 45 (4 units) (Spread is Titans -3)
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Please remember to enter the weekly contest by posting your picks in the comments. (For you new readers out there, contest details can be found here.)
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As always, we'll track our record by picks AND units. Kila la kheri!
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1. Seahawks at Bears: Oh, how we HATE to pick these Bears as favorites. But while the Bears are maddeningly inconsistent, the Seahawks are VERY consistent--consistently TERRIBLE on the road. While Seattle did knock off the underachieving ‘Niners and Chargers in Seattle, they also lost to the Broncos and the putrid Rams on the road--each game by a margin of 17 points. There’s no reason to think that the trend will change here--especially with Chicago’s Football Messiah Himself, Jay Cutler, back under center. We say the Bears romp.
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The pick: Bears -6.5 (4 units) (Total is 37.5)
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2. Jets at Broncos: Last week, we devoted considerable space to a discussion of over/unders in the Jets’ recent games--specifically, that they had been set too low (in the thirties). While we usually like to jump off a bandwagon BEFORE it crashes, we see no reason to buck the trend here. The Jets’ last four have gone over the total by an AVERAGE of almost 11.9 points; the Broncs’ last two have gone over by an average of 5.5. With both teams likely to both put up AND give up gobs of yards, we say the total here is too low. (And by the way, if the line drops to Jets -3, we wouldn’t mind them in a parlay, either...)
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The pick: OVER 43 (4 units) (Spread is Jets -3.5)
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3. Cowboys at Vikings: This one feels tricky. Dallas is averaging 20.3 “Points For” and 21.8 “Points Against”; Minny is at 15.8 PF and 16.8 PA. Those numbers suggest an approximate final score of about 19-19. But Minnesota has put up 20 and 24 in its last two games (against the Jets and Lions, respectively), while Dallas has put up 27, 27 and 20 in its last 3 (against the Titans, Texans and Bears.) And while neither defense gives up (relatively speaking) a TON of yards -- an average of 304.8 for Dallas and 289.3 for Minnesota -- this game FEELS like a shootout. And since we actually used the word “FEELS” in making this pick, we’re keeping the units low here....
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The pick: OVER 44.5 (2 units) (Spread is Vikings -1.5)
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4. Colts at Redskins: Let’s reminisce for a moment about the Colts of days gone by... Nothing felt better than needing a cover going into a night game and knowing that Peyton was going to come through for you. Well, those days are gone...but not this week. It might not be flashy, but the Colts handle the ‘Skins by more than 3, no problem.
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The pick: Colts -3 (2 units) (Total is 44)
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5. Titans at Jaguars: This season, the Titans are averaging 26.4 PF and and 19.0 PA; the Jags, 21.4 and 27.4. Those numbers suggest a final score of approximately 27-20, Titans -- which would put us just over the current total of 45. But let’s add these numbers to the mix: in their last two games, the Titans’ totals have been 46 and 61 (for an average of of 53.5) and the Jags’ totals have been 59 and 62 (for an average of 60.5). Tennessee PUT up 34 against Dallas; Jacksonville GAVE up 26 to BUFFALO). We may like the Titans in this one, but Blue Horseshoe LOVES the over.
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The pick: OVER 45 (4 units) (Spread is Titans -3)
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Please remember to enter the weekly contest by posting your picks in the comments. (For you new readers out there, contest details can be found here.)
-
As always, we'll track our record by picks AND units. Kila la kheri!
4 comments:
bears 3 units
jets under 2 units
vikings 4 units
colts under 2 unit
jags under 3 units
Seahawks 4 units
Jets 2 units
Cowboys 3 units
Colts 3 units
Titans 2 units
Okay, normally I would never comment on another poster's picks, but Philip, the Seahawks for 4? Really? A bold pick in my opinion. Only because I am a life-long Bears fan, I am hoping you are waaay wrong. I think the Bears D shuts em down and Cutler picks apart the 31st ranked pass D in the league. Even though the Bears picked up the run game against a very bad Carolina, I think Martz is licking his chops at the chance to call against the Seahawks secondary. Aerial attack today. Anyway, my picks:
Bear 4 Units
Broncos +3.5 3 Units
Cowboys-Vikes Over 2 units
Skins +3 3 Units
Titans-Jags Over 4 Units
I too am a lifelong Bears fan, and am pretty frustrated by what I am watching. It's always easier to talk after you make the right pick, so I won't get all soapboxy, but I will share this: Be careful with HOPE. HOPE fools people. Martz knows his stuff; he does not have the right tools.
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