Ouch.
It's weeks like last week that: 1. make us wonder why we bother to pick games, and: 2. have the bookmakers lining up at Lexus dealerships.
We tallied a pathetic FOUR losses and ONE win, picking wrong on the Lions/Packers (1 unit), the Eagles (4 units), the Colts (2 units), and (most crushingly) the Bears (4 units), with our only win coming on the Pats (4 units). As the results rolled in, we felt much like Jay Cutler, taking vicious blow after vicious blow to the cranium... (And not to make excuses, but it certainly didn't help our cause that TWO of our quarterbacks were knocked out this week.)
Being as small and petty as we are, we take solace in the fact that our readers didn't fare much better. However, we DO have a contest winner this week: dbato. But since he violated the rules by making a FIVE-unit pick on the Jags (one unit over the max--perhaps he had mjp send in his picks) he will receive only a $3 certificate to KFC (along with warm congratulations, of course).
Week 4 Record:
1 win, 4 losses
4 units won, 11 units lost= -7 units
Year-to-Date:
7 wins, 8 losses
21 units won, 22 units lost= -1 unit
Yet again, the 'dogs ruled the day last weekend, with favorites posting a pathetic 5-9 record ATS (23-37-2 YTD). Totals followed form and clocked in at 8 over, 6 under (30-31-1 YTD). Is it time to give up picking and just put it all against the favorites? We don't think so--as we all know, over the course of the season the records will tend to revert to the mean (or some other mathematical term we missed in college while sleeping through class.)
We'll see you Saturday, by which time we'll hopefully know whether Cutler will rise from his hospital bed to wreak vengeance on the Panthers...
3 comments:
i think i found a new way to always win - pick the dogs....if vegas keeps making money on dogs why not go that way all the time...it's gotta be right 53% of the time right? And 53% is all you need to beat the juice (as long as you are wagering evenly)....ok, I'm going dogs and betting them evenly all year regardless and let's see how it finishes.
My math class was Tuesday nights, so I missed my class because of Mugs and not because of over sleeping.
Mugs was a good math lesson itself...for example, how many mugs can fit into your stomach before you barf? I believe the equation was height X weight X percentage of Irish blood divided by the number of Jerry's falitas you ate for dinner...or something like that.
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