Welcome back to Week 4...we’re calling it that because last week NEVER. HAPPENED.
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Each week, we’ve tried to impart some wisdom on one area or another of picking games. This week, we’re going to take a step backward and discuss the very first rule of handicapping. Here it is, in six words: “Trying to pick winners is STUPID.” “Why”, you ask? Lemme tell ya...
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“Parity” is not just a cliche or another word for Shannon Sharpe to mispronounce on Sunday morning--in the NFL, it is reality. Take, for example, our Monsters of the Midway (Please! Ba-dum-bum...) But seriously--two weeks ago, the Bears looked like a Super Bowl contender as they knocked off the previously unbeaten Packers. One week later, Jay Cutler played the role of Andy Dufresne in a one-hour remake of “The Shawshank Redemption”, co-starring the Giants’ D-line as The Sisters. The Jets’ offense looked like a (very untalented) high school team in Week One, but has averaged 32.3 points in its last 3 games. The moral of this story? Gambling is for morons. As they say in the investment business, “Past Performance is No Guarantee of Future Results”. No matter how many stats you pore over, no matter how many games you watch, you simply never know how one team is going to play against another. And now that we have our excuses out of the way, here come da picks!
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1. Chiefs at Colts: Can the Chiefs maintain their status as the last undefeated team in the NFL? We don’t know...and we don’t care. This game has “total play” written all over it. KC has averaged 22.7 “points for” and 12.7 “points against”; Indy has averaged 29.3 PF and 23.0 PA. Those numbers suggest an approximate score here of about 23-21, Indy. That would be less than the total (as of this writing) of 45.5. But the Chiefs’ low PA has more to do with the craptastic offenses of their opponents than it has to do with their defensive skill. Plus, they can score a few points themselves--and are a threat to break off a kick return TD at any time. And we KNOW Peyton is going to get HIS...
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The pick: OVER 45.5 (4 units) (Spread is Colts -7)
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2. Bears at Panthers: This week’s “Game We Wish We Didn’t Have to Pick”... The line in this one opened with the Bears giving 3 points, until Chicago management wisely decided that Jay Cutler might DIE if he got hit again and pulled him. It now sits at Panthers minus 1.5. So the question is, “Is Jay Cutler worth 4 and a half points himself?” We don’t think so. Our first thought on this game was actually the UNDER all the way--between Carolina’s 11.5 PF average and the prospect of Todd Collins bumbling his way through his first start since 1962, a low score seemed certain. But the total is an astounding 33.5! We can’t remember EVER seeing one that low--and we can’t in good conscience pick it, when Devin Hester’s returns or Collins’ interceptions could easily push it over. We say the Bears keep it simple, run the ball, and eke this one out--but we aren’t putting many units on it...
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The pick: Bears +1.5 (1 unit) (Total is 33.5)
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3. Titans at Cowboys: 2-2 versus 1-2? Who knows? But we say this: Both teams can score. And while Dallas is only giving up 17.7 points per game, they DID give up 27 to THE BEARS, for crying out loud. Romo’s arm probably gives the ‘Boys a cover here, but we feel PRETTY good about calling this one a high scorer.
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The pick: OVER 42 (3 units) (Spread is Cowboys -7)
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4. Eagles at 49ers: Jesus H. Christ! Have there ever been more crappy games on TV in a single week? Kevin Kolb against the 0-4 ‘Niners? Let me mark my calendar! This game is going to be as artfully played as John Candy mud wrestling in “Stripes”. (In fact, why don’t you go here and watch that instead of watching this game?) In the end, we think the wildly terrible 'Niners ride Frank Gore to a win--but not a cover. The hook gets ‘em..
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The pick: Eagles +3.5 (2 units) (Total is 38)
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5. Vikings at Jets: Finally, an interesting game--even if it’s not for what’s ON the field. The addition of Mr. Moss has only lowered this line from Jets -5 to -4...and that seems about right. The Jets have been too strong--and the Vikings too terrible--for one man to change the favorite. But even if he doesn’t catch a single pass, Moss stretches out the field for Adrian Peterson. And here’s our stat of the week: the Jets' last 3 games have gone over the total--WAY over. Here are their last three (beginning with 9/19) over/unders: 39.5, 35.5, 36.5. And here are the actual totals from those games: 42, 54, 52. They’re giving us another one in the thirties this week--and we’re taking it.
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The pick: OVER 39 (4 units) (Spread is Jets -4)
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As always, we'll track our record by picks AND units. Veel geluk!
Each week, we’ve tried to impart some wisdom on one area or another of picking games. This week, we’re going to take a step backward and discuss the very first rule of handicapping. Here it is, in six words: “Trying to pick winners is STUPID.” “Why”, you ask? Lemme tell ya...
-
“Parity” is not just a cliche or another word for Shannon Sharpe to mispronounce on Sunday morning--in the NFL, it is reality. Take, for example, our Monsters of the Midway (Please! Ba-dum-bum...) But seriously--two weeks ago, the Bears looked like a Super Bowl contender as they knocked off the previously unbeaten Packers. One week later, Jay Cutler played the role of Andy Dufresne in a one-hour remake of “The Shawshank Redemption”, co-starring the Giants’ D-line as The Sisters. The Jets’ offense looked like a (very untalented) high school team in Week One, but has averaged 32.3 points in its last 3 games. The moral of this story? Gambling is for morons. As they say in the investment business, “Past Performance is No Guarantee of Future Results”. No matter how many stats you pore over, no matter how many games you watch, you simply never know how one team is going to play against another. And now that we have our excuses out of the way, here come da picks!
-
1. Chiefs at Colts: Can the Chiefs maintain their status as the last undefeated team in the NFL? We don’t know...and we don’t care. This game has “total play” written all over it. KC has averaged 22.7 “points for” and 12.7 “points against”; Indy has averaged 29.3 PF and 23.0 PA. Those numbers suggest an approximate score here of about 23-21, Indy. That would be less than the total (as of this writing) of 45.5. But the Chiefs’ low PA has more to do with the craptastic offenses of their opponents than it has to do with their defensive skill. Plus, they can score a few points themselves--and are a threat to break off a kick return TD at any time. And we KNOW Peyton is going to get HIS...
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The pick: OVER 45.5 (4 units) (Spread is Colts -7)
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2. Bears at Panthers: This week’s “Game We Wish We Didn’t Have to Pick”... The line in this one opened with the Bears giving 3 points, until Chicago management wisely decided that Jay Cutler might DIE if he got hit again and pulled him. It now sits at Panthers minus 1.5. So the question is, “Is Jay Cutler worth 4 and a half points himself?” We don’t think so. Our first thought on this game was actually the UNDER all the way--between Carolina’s 11.5 PF average and the prospect of Todd Collins bumbling his way through his first start since 1962, a low score seemed certain. But the total is an astounding 33.5! We can’t remember EVER seeing one that low--and we can’t in good conscience pick it, when Devin Hester’s returns or Collins’ interceptions could easily push it over. We say the Bears keep it simple, run the ball, and eke this one out--but we aren’t putting many units on it...
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The pick: Bears +1.5 (1 unit) (Total is 33.5)
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3. Titans at Cowboys: 2-2 versus 1-2? Who knows? But we say this: Both teams can score. And while Dallas is only giving up 17.7 points per game, they DID give up 27 to THE BEARS, for crying out loud. Romo’s arm probably gives the ‘Boys a cover here, but we feel PRETTY good about calling this one a high scorer.
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The pick: OVER 42 (3 units) (Spread is Cowboys -7)
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4. Eagles at 49ers: Jesus H. Christ! Have there ever been more crappy games on TV in a single week? Kevin Kolb against the 0-4 ‘Niners? Let me mark my calendar! This game is going to be as artfully played as John Candy mud wrestling in “Stripes”. (In fact, why don’t you go here and watch that instead of watching this game?) In the end, we think the wildly terrible 'Niners ride Frank Gore to a win--but not a cover. The hook gets ‘em..
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The pick: Eagles +3.5 (2 units) (Total is 38)
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5. Vikings at Jets: Finally, an interesting game--even if it’s not for what’s ON the field. The addition of Mr. Moss has only lowered this line from Jets -5 to -4...and that seems about right. The Jets have been too strong--and the Vikings too terrible--for one man to change the favorite. But even if he doesn’t catch a single pass, Moss stretches out the field for Adrian Peterson. And here’s our stat of the week: the Jets' last 3 games have gone over the total--WAY over. Here are their last three (beginning with 9/19) over/unders: 39.5, 35.5, 36.5. And here are the actual totals from those games: 42, 54, 52. They’re giving us another one in the thirties this week--and we’re taking it.
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The pick: OVER 39 (4 units) (Spread is Jets -4)
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As always, we'll track our record by picks AND units. Veel geluk!
4 comments:
cheifs over - 3 units
bears over - 3 units
cowboys under - 3 units
niners under - 3 units
viking +4 - 4 units
Colts under 45.5 - 1 unit
Bears under 33.5 - 4 units
Titans +7 - 1 unit
49ers -3.5 - 4 units
Jets over 39 - 4 units
I'll take the Bears only because I think the Panthers are that bad, especially with Smith out. I know that Carolina has twoo good running backs, but so far this season no one has really run on the Bears D. With no real passing threat, I'll put the Bears at 4-1.
Bears +1.5 (2 Units)
Colts Over (3 Units)
Titans +7 (3 Units)
Niner -3.5 (3 Units)
Jets Over (4 Units)
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