Week 8 NFL TV Picks (AND Week 7 Results and ATS Numbers)

This is IT. "This is WHAT?" you ask... We’ll get to that in a second. First, let’s look at some results.

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First, our readers. There was no drawing, as reader Brandon somehow pulled off an incredible 12-0 weekend and therefore picks up the gift card automatically. (Philip J. went 6-5, also beating our record, which was no great feat...) We, on the other hand, failed to impress, going 2-9 in units. Our only correct pick was the Monday Night over.

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Week 6 Record:
1 win, 3 losses, zero push
2 units won, 9 units lost, 0 units pushed= -7 units

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Year-to-Date:
14 wins, 14 losses, 1 push
39 units won, 43 units lost= -4 units
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In the NFL overall, the trend toward underdogs continued, as favorites posted a paltry 5-9 record ATS (for a year-to date record of 40-61-3 ATS). Overs dominated, with 10 games going over and only 4 under (57-46-1 YTD). The latter result was especially painful for us, as we picked overs in TWO of those few that went under.

Now, back to the first paragraph. When we say "This is it", we mean "this is the weekend where the world returns to normal." Though underdogs have outperformed favorites so far this year by a margin of better than 2 to 1, that trend simply will not continue through the year. By the end of each season, the balance WILL end up closer to even. This year, for that to happen, we're going to have some weeks where the favorites have their vengeance, big-time. We say this week is primed to be one of those...so here come da favorites!

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The picks:
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1. Packers at Jets: The pack may have handled a broken-down Brett Favre easily, but the AFC-leading Jets are another matter entirely. The Jets are 5-1 both straight-up AND ATS, with their only loss coming in Week 1 against a tough Ravens team, before the Jets had their offense running. They stomp the Pack.

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The pick: Jets -6 (4 units) (Total is 42.5)
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2. Jaguars at Cowboys: Hmmm..."Too good to be true?" Romo out, Kitna in, and the 1-5 Cowboys are GIVING almost a touchdown to the 3-4 Jags? Don't get us wrong--the Jags DO suck...just nowhere near as much as the Cowboys suck. We say the Jags run it down their throats all day, and maybe the Cowboys keep an ugly game close, but they ain't winnin' by a touchdown... This will be the only game that makes us go against this week's "favorites" bias.

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The pick: Jaguars +6.5 (4 units) (Total is 43.5)
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3. Vikings at Patriots: OMG IS BRETT FAVRE REALLY GONNA START WITH A BROKEN ANKLE OMG HE IS SO FREAKING AWESOME LOL JEOMK!!! WILL he...or WON'T he? A more important question: who gives a shit? We mulled the idea of not making a pick on this game, since it is technically off the board due to his Favreness' uncertain status. But then we realized that it doesn't matter whether he starts or not: there is NO way the AFC-battle-hardened Pats drop this game. They are simply in a better class than the Vikes. And we'll make a prediction: if Favre DOES start, that ankle will start to hurt REALLY badly right around his third interception--at which time he'll limp off, the injured "warrior"...

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The pick: Patriots -5 (4 units) (Total is 44)
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4. Steelers at Saints: See the Jets' notes above. Pittsburgh fell (by 3 points) to only the Ravens, while the Saints have gone down straight-up against Atlanta, Arizona and Cleveland (!?!). If you're an NFC fan (as we are), this is gonna be a looong, humiliating weekend...(Note that while this is technically an underdog pick, we'd be willing to bet that this line flips to -1 Steelmen by kickoff.)

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The pick: Steelers +1 (4 units) (Total is 44)
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5. Texans at Colts: The toughest call of all the televised games this weekend. Houston DID take down Indy, BUT Indy has played better than Houston since. Then again, Houston has had a tougher schedule. We just don't like the 5.5 points here--there's too much of a possibility of a close game, capped by a Peyton Manning drive for the winning FG. So let's look at the total: Houston is averaging 25.5 "Points For" and 27.8 "Points Against"; Indy is at 27.2 PF and 20.8 PA. Those numbers suggest an approximate final score of about 28-23, Colts. That's only slightly over the total -- but throw in a close game and the prime time slot, and we think it goes over.

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The pick: OVER 50 (4 units) (Spread is Colts -5.5)
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Please remember to enter the weekly contest by posting your picks in the comments. (For you new readers out there, contest details can be found here.)

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As always, we'll track our record by picks AND units. Happy Halloween, and hao yun!